Overview:

Q3 2025 demonstrates that restaurants which combine clear value with tech-driven engagement continue to outperform. While consumer caution persists due to inflation and interest rates, brands leveraging digital ordering, loyalty programs, and operational efficiency sustained traffic and revenue growth.

This quarter, Restaurant Brands International (RBI)—owner of Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes—is a prime example of this trend. By investing in digital ordering, loyalty programs, and delivery partnerships, RBI achieved a 4.0% same-store sales increase, outperforming many competitors in both casual and quick-service segments. This underscores how tech-enabled solutions can amplify operational efficiency and customer value.

We found these articles very insightful, and they mirror what we saw across our client portfolio. The Business Insider piece shows that fast‑food brands are investing heavily in digital kiosks, loyalty programs and self‑service platforms, which correlates with higher average checks and improved traffic.

The Restaurant Dive article complements this, highlighting that 72% of operators say meeting digital ordering demands is now a key challenge—and those that succeed are gaining a competitive edge. In Q3 2025, chains such as Restaurant Brands International (Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes) leveraged these initiatives to deliver +4.0% same‑store sales, outperforming many competitors in both the casual‑ and quick‑service segments.

• RBI (Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes) achieved a 4.0% SSS increase thanks to digital ordering, app engagement, and loyalty programs.
• Chili’s (+5.4%) continues to benefit from value-driven promotions and traffic optimization.
• Potbelly (+3.3%) leverages app engagement and store expansion.
• Wingstop (+3.0%) demonstrates the impact of digital ordering and delivery partnerships.

• Sweetgreen (-5.8%) saw traffic declines as customers questioned price vs. value; operational resets are underway.
• The ONE Group (STK) (-5.9%) experienced a mix shift and weaker corporate sales.
• Starbucks U.S. (-2.0%) faced slower recovery post-rewards relaunch.

2025 has seen stronger sales performance for Full Service and Fine Dining concepts compared to QSR and Fast Casual.

Consumers have shown some spending fatigue for the ‘bowl concepts’ and have generally opted to allocate more spend to the restaurant experience which is only at a slightly higher price point.

​​Denny’s​ leads the top 10 for the week ending ​Friday, 7 November 2025​.

• NRA: Economic Indicators – Same-store sales and customer traffic – Link
• 8 restaurant trends to watch in 2025 – Link
• Chipotle’s Comparable Sales Dropped Year Over Year… – Link
• Toast Data: Reservation trends shift to slower days and early dinners – Link
• WSJ – Are value meals worth it for restaurants? – Link

Week Ending | ​07/11/2025​

The last 30-day performance had an average of ​4.1%​ for the Top 10.

The top 10 is made up of mostly Franchisor entities, which have higher multiples than company owned concepts. Consensus revenue growth forecasts estimate ~12.5% growth into 2025. The growth guidance is attributable to store growth and price increases.

Restaurant businesses are generally valued on multiples of their revenue or EBITDA, depending on their capital structure, growth potential, and franchise model. For example, a McDonald’s franchise has a higher revenue multiple than a company-owned restaurant chain like Shake Shack.
Here are some of the factors that affect restaurant valuation multiples:

• Capital structure: Businesses with less debt and more equity tend to have higher valuation multiples.
• Growth potential: Businesses with high growth potential tend to have higher valuation multiples.
• Franchise model: Franchise businesses tend to have higher valuation multiples than company-owned businesses.